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DISPATCHES FROM INDIA

INSIGHT: Indian vs. global GDP growth

4/2/2020

 
India has historically been able to maintain enviable rates of GDP growth even during global downturns, aided by factors including durable demographic tailwinds and the drops in oil import costs that often coincide with such slowdowns.
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INSIGHT: beneficiary of cheap oil

3/16/2020

 
​The world’s third-largest oil importer (behind China and the U.S.), India is an unambiguous beneficiary of lower oil prices.  With limited domestic production, India relies on imports for more than 80% of its petroleum demand.  The country’s 2019 crude oil import bill exceeded $120 billion – equivalent to over 4% of GDP and accounting for more than four-fifths of its overall merchandise trade deficit.  Historically, significant declines in oil prices have for India been leading indicators of faster GDP growth, lower inflation, smaller current account deficits, and reduced fiscal deficits.
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Demographics discussion on Real Vision

2/19/2020

 
I recently sat down with Real Vision to discuss India's demographic dividend, rapid urbanization, and investing landscape.

Check out the full video here: ​https://www.realvision.com/india-uncaging-a-tiger

INSIGHT: inflation in check

4/23/2019

 
The pace of Indian consumer price inflation is hovering just above a two-decade low, driven by the combination of subdued commodity prices and relatively disciplined fiscal policy.  Even as India's GDP continues to grow at the fastest pace of any major economy, muted inflationary pressures have cleared the way for two successive interest rate cuts by the central bank in recent months.
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Top 10 India stories of 2018

1/10/2019

 
These were some of this blogger's favorite India-related reads of the past year:
  1. ​Stock Fever Grips India, as Millions of New Investors Pile In (WSJ) 
  2. A new bankruptcy code is reshaping Indian business (The Economist)
  3. After Losing China, Jeff Bezos Really Wants to Win in India (Bloomberg)
  4. Two Years Ago, India Lacked Fast, Cheap Internet—One Billionaire Changed All That (WSJ)
  5. One year of GST: The successes, failures and what's next on the agenda (Economic Times)
  6. U.S. and India, Wary of China, Agree to Strengthen Military Ties​ (New York Times)
  7. Can the rupee become a hard currency? (LiveMint)
  8. India: Narendra Modi hunts for more economic ‘firepower’​ (FT)
  9. Netflix's next 100 million subscribers to come from India (Hindustan Times)
  10. World’s Largest Mobile Phone Factory Opens in India (Bloomberg)

Honorable (serious) mentions: How one Indian city cracked the problem of urban spread; Establishing identity is a vital, risky and changing business (The Economist)
Honorable (cheeky) mention: Ring the doorbell and run: How nuclear rivals India, Pakistan harass each other (Economic Times)

INSIGHT: world's fifth-largest economy

1/7/2019

 
As recently as 2014, India's GDP (measured in current, a.k.a. "nominal", dollars at market exchange rates) ranked tenth globally.  Having overtaken Russia, Italy, and Brazil over the past four years, India is on track to eclipse both the United Kingdom and France in 2019 to become the world's fifth-largest economy in current dollars.  On a purchasing power parity basis (i.e., adjusted for differences in the cost of goods and services), India's economy is already larger than those of Germany, the UK, and France combined.
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More to come on this topic in an upcoming dispatch.
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    Topics

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    Demographics
    Income Inflection
    India Before 1991
    India Since 1991
    India's Unfinished Revolution
    Insights
    Introduction
    The Legacy Of 1991

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